Investment Topics

Gold, Silver, and Oil Trading Guide

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As the dawn of a new trading week unfolded in the Asian market on February 10, the scene was nothing short of a rollercoaster for investors in gold. Early on, the commodity found itself dipping to $2,854.72 per ounce, a direct consequence of a rising U.S. dollar. However, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, gold quickly recouped its losses, with trading levels stabilizing around $2,872.25 per ounce, reflecting a modest gain of approximately 0.22%. This volatility was intensified by announcements from the U.S. government regarding the imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, which injected a wave of uncertainty into the market. The dollar's surge provided initial pressure on gold, but soon the allure of safe-haven investing began to buoy prices once again.

Gold has long been revered as a protective asset amid political and financial turmoil. Historical data reveals that during periods of uncertainty, investors flock to gold as a hedge against instability. Despite this, the recent uptick in both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has injected caution among bullish gold traders. Strong employment data from the U.S. labor market indicated resilience, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, contrasting economists' predictions of a rise to 4.1%. Over the preceding week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond also saw an uptick, settling at 4.489% after gaining 5.1 basis points. The U.S. dollar index experienced a significant boost as well, closing up 0.37% at 108.10.

A detailed report from the U.S. Labor Department indicated that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of the anticipated 170,000 positions. This unexpected shortfall could give the Federal Reserve a reason to maintain its stance and potentially pause interest rate cuts until June. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan reported a surprising dip in the U.S. consumer confidence index to a seven-month low for February. Apprehensions regarding rising prices due to tariffs fueled a spike in consumers' one-year inflation expectations to the highest level seen in over a year.

Three Federal Reserve officials highlighted their views on the robustness of the U.S. job market during discussions last Friday. They pointed to the uncertainties that U.S. policy could impose on economic growth and noted the persistent high inflation, rationalizing their caution against impulsively reducing interest rates. As a result, short-term interest rate futures traders are currently estimating only one rate cut from the Fed this year. Prior to the labor data's release, the odds of a June rate cut were pegged at approximately 63%, but in light of the data, those likelihoods have plummeted to just above 50%.

During the trading on February 10, gold opened near $2,856, experiencing a slight uptick in Asian trading hours. European trading presented a mix of fluctuations within a small range, but the American session witnessed a surge, leading to a temporary peak around $2,887 before beginning to retrace. As the day progressed, gold showed signs of exhaustion, closing with a long upper shadow daily candlestick. Analysis of the daily chart reveals that the Bollinger Bands continue to open upward; however, the K-line trends indicate a series of rebounds at lower levels. Moving averages (MA5 and MA10) are in a dispersing upward state, while MACD energy bars are gradually decreasing. A KDJ cross indicates a possibility of a high retreat trend. In the short term, considering this rebound strength is waning, it's advisable to maintain a focus on resistance levels for high short positions.

In contrast, gold trading strategies for February 10 could be summarized as follows: 1) Look for short positions near $2,875/$2,877 with a $6.5 stop loss, targeting a drop to the $2,860—$2,836—$2,810 range; 2) Enter short orders anytime the price tests around $2,890/$2,892, again maintaining a $6.5 stop loss with targets at $2,876—$2,850; 3) For potential buying opportunities, seek long positions close to $2,810/$2,812 with a stop loss of $6.5, aiming for rebounds toward $2,825—$2,840.

Turning our attention to silver on the same day, trading opened at approximately $32.22. The commodity saw minor fluctuations during the Asian and European trading sessions, yet experienced a notable surge post the U.S. market opening, reaching an intraday high of $32.65. However, the euphoria was short-lived, as silver retraced all its gains by the end of the day, closing with a long upper shadow in a bearish fashion. Analyzing the silver daily chart using Bollinger Bands illustrates an upward opening trend, indicating resistance near the top band for the K-line. The short-term moving averages (MA5 and MA10) are exhibiting upward dispersion. MACD's energy bars are contracting, while the KDJ indicates a bearish crossing. A longer-term outlook suggests the potential for downward pressures following recent rebounds. Therefore, short positions near the resistance level should be monitored closely for potential upward corrections.

Silver trading recommendations for February 10 suggest: 1) Consider initiating short positions near $32.00/$32.18 with a stop loss at $32.36 and targets set at $31.53—$31.00—$30.36; 2) Open new short orders at any point testing around $32.63/$32.78, maintaining a stop loss of $32.96 with a targets set for a drop to $32.00—$31.48; 3) For bullish strategies, place long positions near the bottom range of $30.35/$30.46, keeping a stop loss at $30.14 and targeting $31.00—$31.53 upwards.

Lastly, the crude oil market opened at approximately $70.50, with upward motions observed during Asian trading, followed by continued gains throughout the European session. However, the American trading hours presented a high-volatile environment, reflecting a pullback after the initial surge. The daily chart shows a small upward closing, with the Bollinger Band narrowing, now indicating a potential breakout. The K-line oscillates near the lower band, with moving averages showing signs of divergence as they begin to tilt downwards. MACD energy bars are also contracting, but the KDJ indicators denote a bullish cross. The analysis suggests watching for upward movements of crude oil despite recent fluctuations.

For oil trading strategies on February 10: 1) Seek long positions near the $70.80/$71 range with a $70 stop loss and target upward movements toward $72.50—$74.80; 2) Consider long positions whenever the price touches $69.40/$69.60, employing a stop loss of $68.50, with upward targets around $71—$72.70; 3) Approach potential short positions if the market tests resistance near $73.80/$74 with a stop loss at $75, targeting a downward move to $72.60—$71.


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